The Cost of Going Backward: HUD's New Approach to Homelessness

HUD recently released its 2026 Continuum of Care (CoC) Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO), signaling a major shift in federal homelessness policy. In this special episode of Defining Affordable, Jaime and Robin examine the proposed changes, the evidence behind them, and what they could mean for communities across the country.

HUD argues that Housing First has failed and proposes a renewed emphasis on transitional housing, recovery-focused programs, and new measures of self-sufficiency. But do the data support that conclusion?

Drawing on decades of research, local experience, and examples from communities across the nation, Jaime breaks down the claims made in the NOFO and explores why many housing professionals are concerned that these changes could reverse hard-won progress in reducing homelessness and improving housing stability.

The conversation examines the real costs of homelessness, the effectiveness of Housing First and Permanent Supportive Housing, and the potential consequences of moving away from evidence-based approaches that have helped communities achieve measurable results.

Resources referenced during the episode, including opportunities for advocacy and further reading, are included below.

Sources & Further Reading

HUD's 2026 Continuum of Care NOFO

• HUD News Release — HUD Announces 2026 Continuum of Care Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO)
• https://www.hud.gov/news/hud-no-26-038
• HUD — FY 2026 Continuum of Care Competition Stakeholder Memo
• https://www.hud.gov/sites/default/files/OCHCO/documents/Stakeholder-Memo.pdf
• National Alliance to End Homelessness — FY 2026 Continuum of Care Competition NOFO Analysis
• https://endhomelessness.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/FY2026-Continuum-of-Care-Competition-NOFO-Analysis.pdf
• National Coalition for the Homeless — HUD Policy Updates and Analysis
• https://nationalhomeless.org/tag/hud/
• Shelterforce — Judge Blocks HUD Overhaul of Federal Funding for Homelessness Services
• https://shelterforce.org/2026/01/23/judge-blocks-hud-overhaul-federal-funding-for-homelessness-services/
• Public Rights Project — National Alliance to End Homelessness v. HUD: Fact Sheet
• https://www.publicrightsproject.org/naeh-v-hud-fact-sheet/

Housing First & Permanent Supportive Housing

• Urban Institute — Housing First Is Still the Best Approach to Ending Homelessness
• https://housingmatters.urban.org/articles-features/housing-first-still-best-approach-ending-homelessness
• National Alliance to End Homelessness — Cost Savings from Permanent Supportive Housing
• https://endhomelessness.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Cost-Savings-from-PSH.pdf
• Jamboree Housing Corporation — Permanent Housing Ends Homelessness
• https://www.jamboreehousing.com/pages/permanent-housing-ends-homelessness-presentations
• National Center for Biotechnology Information — Housing First Is Associated with Reduced Use of Emergency Medical Services
• https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6446444/

Homelessness, Health, & Housing Stability

• California Policy Lab — Health Conditions Among Unsheltered Adults in the United States
• https://capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Health-Conditions-Among-Unsheltered-Adults-in-the-US.pdf
• Voice of San Diego — Project 25: The Pilot Project Aimed at San Diego's Most Difficult Homeless Cases Showed Promise—Then Died
• https://voiceofsandiego.org/2022/10/17/project-25-the-pilot-project-aimed-at-san-diegos-most-difficult-homeless-cases-showed-promise-then-died/

Harm Reduction

• American Academy of HIV Medicine — Syringe Exchange and Harm Reduction
• https://aahivm.org/syringe-exchange-harm-reduction/
• NPR — 5 Years After Indiana's Historic HIV Outbreak, Many Rural Areas Remain at Risk
• https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/16/801720966/5-years-after-indianas-historic-hiv-outbreak-many-rural-places-remain-at-risk

Rent Control

• ScienceDirect — Rent Control Effects Through the Lens of Empirical Research: An Almost Complete Review of the Literature
• https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137724000020

Housing Affordability & Rent Trends

• Realtor.com — January 2026 Rent Report
• https://www.realtor.com/research/january-2026-rent/
• In2013Dollars.com — Historical Rent Inflation Data
• https://www.in2013dollars.com/Rent-of-primary-residence/price-inflation

Take Action

Contact Your Representatives

Share your thoughts on the proposed FY 2026 Continuum of Care NOFO with your elected officials:

https://www.votervoice.net/CSH/Campaigns/137566/Respond

Explore the Impact

See how the proposed NOFO changes could affect communities across the country:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/naeh1302/viz/FY26NOFOImpactAnalysis/Dashboard1#1